In uno studio della Bis dal titolo “Economic resilence: a financial perspective” vengono alla luce interessanti spunti sul ciclo economico e finanziario e relative politiche fiscali e monetarie. Due indicazioni su tutte:
1. “Indeed, the evidence that post-crisis recoveries are often “creditless” suggests that economies need to go through a period of deleveraging in order to return to sustainable growth”
2. “Cyclical fiscal policy could complement monetary policy and macroprudential tools to lean against the wind. To the extent that authorities base policies on cyclically adjusted measures of fiscal space, their stance would already be countercyclical. It would contribute to the build-up of fiscal resources during a financial upturn so that they could be deployed in a downturn. Whether fiscal policy can also dampen significantly the financial cycle is still an open question. That said, there are some promising indications that tighter fiscal policy may slow private credit growth without having large adverse effects on output.52 Another advantage of fiscal policy, at least compared to monetary policy, is that it can be more targeted and may limit the currency appreciation that could go along with higher interest rates. On the other hand, fiscal policy may be harder to implement in a timely fashion. For this reason, automatic stabiliser mechanisms aimed at the financial cycle rather than the business cycle may be a more promising avenue.”
Da una parte si sottolinea la necessità di un deleveraging prima di tornare ad una crescita sana e fisiologica, dall’altro è necessario dare maggiore importanza al ciclo finanziario, rispetto a quello economico, con meccanismi automatici di intervento. Ma il quesito che sembra più importante per il sottoscritto è: guardando il grafico siamo al bottom del ciclo finanziario Usa e quindi potrebbe partire un nuovo bull market? L’euforia irrazionale di Greenspan, prima di verificarsi, ha dovuto aspettare qualche anno con lo scoppio delle dot.com…la storia si ripeterà?
Guido Gennaccari
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